Ukraine : Europe trapped by Zelensky

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4 months after the start of the warfare, the Ukrainian actor-president Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved all his objectives. The European Fee has simply granted Ukraine the standing of a candidate for EU membership.

By welcoming Emmanuel Macron, President of the Council of the European Union (till June 30, 2022) to Ukraine, accompanied by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the Ukrainian president has secured the assist of key European leaders to beat Russia and in the future be a part of the European Union. Right here’s how.

“Locations of struggling”

Zelensky has skilfully performed the cardboard of compassion, that noble feeling that anesthetizes thought and annihilates the rationality on which any accountable political resolution should be based mostly. Zelensky is aware of it: he even made Europeans really feel responsible by making them go to “the locations of struggling” just like the ruins of Irpin the place Macron was “appalled by the Russian barbarity” in keeping with his personal phrases. The principle half was executed.
After heat embraces and manly handshakes, the three foremost European leaders might solely verify “the message of assist” to Kiev “for the current and for the long run”. Every introduced the reinforcement of financial and army support to Ukraine. France, for its half, will ship “six extra Caesar tanks” to Ukraine, along with the twelve already delivered.

The dialogue of arms

No extra questions of “not humiliating Russia” as Macron needed. “We stand by the Ukrainians with out ambiguity (…), the obligation of France and Europe was to return [to Kiev].
President Zelensky made his goal clear: the warfare will solely be over when Ukraine has regained its territorial integrity, together with Crimea.
This level has been formalized – it’s important – and ridicules in passing the makes an attempt at mediation by President Macron, whose opinion has been trampled on by Zelensky, who has made it clear that the one potential dialogue with Russia for the second is that of arms! Macron not solely has to maintain quiet, however he’s additionally requested to approve. He has eaten his hat in public.

Europe’s assist

Zelensky, maneuvered by the People, has very clear concepts: he asks for Europe’s assist and Europe says sure. However how? Zelensky knew completely properly that Europe’s army support was strictly insufficient (there was discuss of the well-known Caesar cannons, and the People already needed to provide the 155 mm shells…). He’ll subsequently fall again on financial and monetary support… as quickly as he turns into a candidate (which he has simply obtained), he’ll ask Europe to take cost, to start with, of the financing of his whole public service. That’s all. And he’ll get it (Washington will press the “Berlin” button, which can then take over from Brussels). He’ll thus stabilize the state construction that’s threatened in the present day. However after this achievement, he is not going to cease there!

American affect

The standing of Ukraine as a candidate for Europe could have a powerful consequence: it can tie Ukraine to the European regional zone of American affect and, by domino impact, Europe will be unable to refuse the identical standing to the Balkan states that demand it. The longer term border between the American and Chinese language zones of affect is clearly seen.

As for the warfare, it relies upon solely on American armaments (within the broad sense)… the situation doesn’t disguise an enormous unknown: will the Ukrainians settle for to pay the very heavy human value of the Reconquista? As a result of the warfare goes to be lengthy (as much as a number of years?) – this is without doubt one of the circumstances for the definitive weakening of Russia, which can then have to show to China to defend the few remaining pursuits (Russia has simply acquired official assist from China). Thus, the tip of the matter will likely be, in high-quality, a China-US dialogue to the exclusion of all others, with a single goal: the place will the border go ?

 



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